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* Title: A POLITICAL HISTORY FORECAST OF BLOC SUPPORT IN THE 2025 
*        GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS 
* Authors: Stephen Quinlan, Christian Schnaudt, & Michael S. Lewis-Beck
* Journal of Publication: POLITICAL SCIENCE & POLITICS
* Year of Publication: 2025
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* README FILE
* Last updated: Thursday, November 20, 2025
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*/// TABLE OF CONTENTS READ ME FILE
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*/// 1: NAVIGATION OF READ ME FILE
*/// 2: PURPOSE OF READ ME FILE
*/// 3: DATAVERSE DEPOSIT OVERVIEW
*/// 4: DESCRIPTION OF DATA AND DEPOSITED SYNTAX FILES
*/// 5: MS EXCEL
*/// 6: NOTE REGARDING USE OF SYNTAX FILE
*/// 7: CONTACT THE AUTHORS


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*/// 1: NAVIGATION OF READ ME FILE
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* /// = SECTION HEADER 
* >>> = SUB-SECTION HEADER


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*/// 2: PURPOSE OF READ ME FILE
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This file details information regarding the deposits of "Forecasting Bloc
Support in German Federal Elections: A Political History Model" paper by 
Quinlan, Schnaudt, and Lewis-Beck appearing in PS: 
Political Science & Politics (2025)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096525000204


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*/// 3: DATAVERSE DEPOSIT OVERVIEW
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The Dataverse deposit (November 2025) includes four files: 
- STATA Dataset (.dta) including data on German Federal Elections. 
- STATA Data Analysis Syntax file (.do) including replication syntax for 
  all analysis included in the paper and accompanying appendixes.  
- Excel file detailing 2025 Forecast Estimates under different specifications 
  & In Paper Figures
- ReadMe File (.txt) providing overview of the deposit and further 
  instructions where applicable. 


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*/// 4: DESCRIPTION OF DATA AND DEPOSITED SYNTAX FILES
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*>>> STATA DATASET (Name:Q_S_LB_German Forecast Data 1953-2021.dta)
This STATA data (wide format - observations=rows; variables=columns) include
data on German Federal Elections from 1953-2021. Data was obtained 
from a variety of sources including the Bundeswahlleiter (German Federal
Election Returning Officer - see https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de) and
German Regional Election Returning Officers. Most data was 
initially collected March-June 2021 and supplemented by data collection in 
November-December 2024. 


*>>> DATA ANALYSIS SYNTAX FILE (Name: Q_S_LB_German Forecast Data 1953-2021 Syntax.do)
This file offers replication code for the regression analysis and appendix
in the paper FORECASTING BLOC SUPPORT IN GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS: A 
POLITICAL HISTORY MODEL. It is a STATA .do file and should be run on the 
STATA version of the dataset but can also be read into any text file 
program such as Notepad or Sublime Text. 


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*/// 5: MS EXCEL
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The MS Excel file details 2025 Forecast Estimates under different 
specifications & In Paper Figure (Figure 1). 


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*/// 6: NOTE REGARDING USE OF SYNTAX FILE
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"ACHTUNG" = May require user to change the file path for file to be opened. 


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*/// 7: CONTACT THE AUTHORS 
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The authors can be contacted at: 
- STEPHEN QUINLAN 
  stephenpfquinlanwork@gmail.com 

- CHRISTIAN SCHNAUDT 
  schnaudt@uni-mannheim.de

- MICHAEL S. LEWIS-BECK
  michael-lewis-beck@uiowa.edu


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